In late February 2026 a new and dangerous phase of tension erupted in the Persian Gulf. It developed after coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel against key targets deep inside Iran, including facilities linked to the country’s leadership. Tehran responded with a series of missile and drone barrages directed at U.S. military assets and allied states throughout the region — most notably the United Arab Emirates, including Dubai and Abu Dhabi. What began as a localized confrontation has quickly escalated into a broader regional conflict.
Contents
How Many People Working in Dubai Have Returned Home?
As soon as the first Iranian strikes were reported, Western governments issued travel advisories urging citizens to reassess their presence in the Gulf. Airlines suspended or rerouted flights due to disruptions in airspace and heightened risk, slowing the movement of people and complicating departures.
Exact figures are hard to determine, but tens of thousands of Western nationals have already left the UAE or expressed strong intent to do so. Many have booked return flights weeks in advance, only to find themselves grounded as commercial aviation routes remain restricted.
According to media reports and citizen accounts emerging from Dubai, groups of French, Italian, British, and American workers have been coordinating with their respective embassies for evacuation help. Others arestill waiting for available flights once airspace reopens.
Despite these movements, a large expatriate community remains, including many who work in finance, tech, and tourism sectors. The ongoing disruption has thus created a rare exodus from one of the world’s most globalized cities.
Why Those Who Stayed Say They Feel Safe
Many expatriates and residents who have chosen to remain in Dubai describe a sense of security that might seem at odds with the frequent news of air raids and rising tensions. This apparent confidence stems from several factors.
1. Strong Defense Posture
The UAE’s air defense systems have shot down hundreds of incoming drones and missiles before they could cause large-scale damage. Authorities have highlighted this defensive success as proof of readiness.
2. Government Messaging & Public Order
Daily life in Dubai continues in many respects with a normal rhythm. Shops open, workplaces operate, and essential services continue uninterrupted. The government has largely avoided alarmist messaging and reinforces the idea that threats are being actively managed.
3. Limited Public Debate on Security
Unlike many Western societies, the UAE does not have unrestricted public discourse on government policy or criticism of leadership decisions. Political expression is tightly regulated, and public debate on issues of war, diplomacy, and strategy is often muted or channeled through official statements rather than open forums. This system contributes to a perception of calm among those who stay.
4. Focus on Stability
Both residents and local authorities emphasize that the UAE remains committed to economic and social stability. Many companies have implemented remote work options or adjusted schedules to minimize risk, and local media continues to highlight everyday life alongside official security updates.
For many, this blend of strong defense, guided information, and everyday normality — even under stress — creates a feeling that living in Dubai remains safer than it appears from headlines alone.
Can the UAE Sustain a Conflict Against Iran?
The short answer is no — not in a prolonged or independent way. While the UAE has significantly upgraded its military capabilities over the past decade, including air defense systems and partnerships with Western militaries, it lacks the strategic depth and industrial capacity for a sustained war against a country like Iran.
Key points include:
- Defense, Not Offense — The UAE’s military is largely defensive in nature, designed to protect territory and assets. Its ability to project force into Iranian territory or sustain lengthy combat operations on its own is limited.
- Dependence on Allies — Much of the UAE’s military resilience in the current crisis comes from its alliances with the United States and Western partners. Without external backing, prolonged conflict with Iran would be untenable.
- Economic Vulnerabilities — The UAE’s economy, especially sectors like aviation, tourism, and foreign investment, is highly exposed to geopolitical risk. A drawn-out conflict would rapidly erode confidence and inflict deep economic damage that the state would struggle to absorb independently.
Instead of pursuing confrontation, Abu Dhabi has opted for diplomatic and defensive measures — even as it condemns Iranian attacks and adopts a firm stance to protect sovereignty. The UAE’s strategy reflects risk management and deterrence rather than open military competition.
Dubai at a Crossroad
The crisis in the Persian Gulf, sparked by strikes on Iran and met with swift retaliation, has transformed Dubai from a global crossroads into a city on high alert. Western expatriates have begun returning home in significant numbers.
Yet beneath the calm lies a sobering reality. The UAE cannot sustain a long-running conflict with Iran independently, and its security and prosperity remain tightly linked to broader regional and global dynamics. As the situation continues to unfold, Dubai’s unique blend of resilience, risk, and international connection makes it a bellwether for the wider Gulf region.
