El Niño is no longer just a warning about what could happen this winter.
In parts of the world, its consequences are already becoming painfully real.
Indonesia is battling its worst wildfire season in more than a decade, with smoke spreading across Southeast Asia and more than 113,000 cases of respiratory illness reported by September 9.
In China, torrential rain linked to Typhoon Saudel has forced tens of thousands of people from their homes and triggered deadly landslides.
Across Eastern and Southern Africa, meanwhile, UNICEF estimates that an extraordinary 162 million children live in areas exposed to the effects of the strengthening 2026/27 El Niño.
And the phenomenon has not yet reached its expected peak.
The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is firmly established and is expected to strengthen into a very strong event towards the end of 2026, with an almost 100% probability that it will persist through February 2027.
So where is the situation already most serious, and which areas could be next?
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Indonesia Is Facing One of the Most Visible Crises
Some of the most dramatic consequences are currently being seen in Indonesia.
High temperatures, prolonged dry conditions and a strong El Niño have helped create an exceptionally dangerous fire season across Sumatra and Borneo.
More than 202,000 hectares had already burned between January and July, with much larger areas believed to have been affected during August as conditions deteriorated.
But the biggest immediate problem for millions of people is not the fire itself. It is the smoke.
Indonesia’s Health Ministry reported more than 113,000 respiratory infections associated with the wildfire crisis by September 9, more than double the level recorded at the beginning of the month.
Around 12.5 million people across seven provinces have been exposed to smoke and haze.
Schools have been disrupted, masks and oxygen equipment have been distributed and international assistance has begun arriving to support firefighting operations.
The pollution is also crossing borders, affecting neighbouring countries including Malaysia and Singapore.
China Has Seen Evacuations, Floods and Deadly Landslides
Hundreds of kilometres further north, a very different type of extreme weather has been causing disruption.
Typhoon Saudel brought extraordinary rainfall to parts of eastern and southern China after making several landfalls.
More than 83,000 people were evacuated in Fujian province alone as authorities closed schools, suspended transport and activated emergency flood procedures.
The storm later produced destructive rainfall further inland.
In Jiangxi province, rain-triggered landslides had killed at least 16 people by September 10, with thousands of residents evacuated from dangerous areas.
El Niño did not simply “cause” one individual typhoon. Tropical cyclones develop through a complex combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
However, Chinese meteorological experts have linked this year’s unusual typhoon patterns and extended activity to the broader influence of the strong El Niño developing across the Pacific.
162 Million Children Are Exposed in Africa
The most alarming number may come from Africa.
UNICEF warned at the beginning of September that more than 162 million children — over two-thirds of all children in Eastern and Southern Africa — live in areas exposed to the effects of the 2026/27 El Niño.
The danger is particularly complicated because El Niño does not create the same problem everywhere.
Some areas could face severe drought and extreme heat. Others may experience excessive rainfall and flooding.
Both scenarios can threaten crops, drinking water, sanitation, schools and healthcare.
UNICEF has identified Somalia, Ethiopia and South Sudan as priority countries for early intervention because existing humanitarian vulnerabilities could make another major climate shock particularly damaging.
For children, the consequences go well beyond uncomfortable weather. Failed harvests and water shortages can quickly become malnutrition crises, while flooding can contaminate drinking water and increase the spread of disease.
Why Is El Niño Becoming So Powerful?
The phenomenon begins in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
During El Niño, unusually warm surface water spreads across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as the normal trade winds weaken.
Because the Pacific is enormous, that change can alter atmospheric circulation across much of the planet.
The 2026 event has developed particularly rapidly.
WMO says exceptionally warm ocean conditions are supporting further intensification, and its latest models show an almost 100% probability that El Niño will continue through February 2027.
The phenomenon is expected to reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of the year.
That matters because strong El Niño events can significantly change rainfall and temperature patterns across enormous geographical areas.
Which Parts of the World Are Most at Risk Next?
The regions experiencing problems today are not necessarily the only ones that will feel El Niño over the coming months.
Typical El Niño patterns increase the probability of drier conditions across parts of Southeast Asia, southern Asia, the Caribbean and northern South America.
At the same time, wetter conditions can become more likely across parts of eastern Africa, southern North America, eastern Asia and southern South America.
That is why El Niño can produce apparently contradictory headlines at exactly the same time.
One country may be struggling with drought and wildfires while another faces excessive rainfall and flooding.
The effects can then spread into the economy through lower agricultural production, higher food prices, damaged infrastructure and pressure on energy and water supplies.
Could El Niño Affect Europe and Italy?
Europe is different.
El Niño has a much clearer influence on weather in tropical regions and around the Pacific than it does on the European continent.
European weather is heavily influenced by the Atlantic Ocean, the jet stream and regional pressure systems, meaning there is no simple formula linking a strong El Niño to one specific type of European winter.
That does not mean Europe is isolated from what is happening.
Seasonal forecasts continue to favour temperatures above normal across much of the continent, while parts of southern and western Europe may experience wetter periods during autumn.
For Italy, one concern is the combination of warm Mediterranean waters and weather systems capable of drawing large quantities of moisture from the sea.
When the atmospheric setup is right, that can contribute to extremely intense rainfall.
But it would be misleading to claim today that El Niño will directly cause floods in Italy or guarantee an exceptionally warm or cold winter.
The Most Dangerous Phase May Still Be Ahead
What makes the current situation particularly concerning is timing.
Indonesia is already dealing with toxic haze. Communities in China have already been evacuated. UNICEF is already preparing for droughts and floods affecting millions of children.
Yet WMO expects El Niño to strengthen further before reaching its peak towards the end of 2026.
This does not mean every frightening scenario will happen.
El Niño changes probabilities rather than determining individual weather events, and even exceptionally strong episodes produce different effects from one region to another.
But governments are preparing early for a reason.
For the latest scientific assessment, the World Meteorological Organization’s El Niño update tracks the evolution of the phenomenon and its expected global impacts.
The 2026 El Niño is already affecting lives thousands of kilometres apart in dramatically different ways. And with its strongest phase potentially still months away, the areas suffering today may only be the beginning of the story.
Australia Is Preparing for a Dangerous Fire Season
One of the countries watching El Niño most closely is Australia.
The Bureau of Meteorology expects below-average spring rainfall across parts of southern and eastern Australia, while daytime temperatures are likely to remain above average across much of the country.
The warning signs are already visible. Sydney experienced temperatures around 13°C above normal in early September, prompting an extreme fire-danger warning and a total fire ban across the Greater Sydney region.
Authorities are now preparing for the months ahead, carrying out controlled burns and reducing vegetation before the main bushfire season intensifies.
El Niño does not guarantee another disaster like Australia’s devastating 2019-20 Black Summer, but hotter and drier conditions can create an increasingly dangerous background for wildfires.
Peru and Ecuador Could Face the Opposite Problem
On the other side of the Pacific, the concern is not only drought.
Peru’s official El Niño monitoring agency has maintained an El Niño Costero alert and currently sees a high probability of an extraordinary coastal event between September 2026 and January 2027.
Northern coastal Peru is expected to have an increased chance of above-normal rainfall as the event strengthens.
That matters because previous strong El Niño events have brought destructive flooding and landslides to parts of Peru and Ecuador.
Ecuador is also watching the Galápagos Islands particularly closely. Very warm ocean temperatures can reduce plankton and fish populations, disrupting the food chain for penguins, sea lions and seabirds, while heavier rainfall can transform fragile island ecosystems.
Why the Human Cost Can Go Far Beyond the Weather
The biggest effects of El Niño are often indirect.
Drought can destroy crops and reduce livestock production. Flooding can damage roads, homes and water systems. Wildfire smoke can send thousands of people to hospitals.
When several of these problems happen across major agricultural regions at the same time, the consequences can also reach people living thousands of kilometres away through higher food prices and disrupted supply chains.
This is one reason humanitarian organisations are acting before the phenomenon reaches its expected peak.
In Eastern and Southern Africa alone, UNICEF says 162 million children live in areas exposed to potential El Niño impacts, with drought, extreme heat and flooding threatening food security, clean water, health and education.
Europe Is Less Exposed, but Not Completely Protected
For Europe, predicting the consequences is more difficult.
El Niño’s connection with European weather is considerably weaker than its influence around the Pacific, meaning it cannot tell us today whether Italy will have a rainy winter, Germany will experience heavy snow or Spain will face another drought.
What seasonal models do show is a continued tendency towards above-normal temperatures across much of Europe, while rainfall patterns remain more uncertain.
Southern Europe also enters autumn after another exceptionally hot summer, with warm Mediterranean waters capable of providing additional moisture to intense storms.
For Italy, Spain, France and other Mediterranean countries, this makes heavy rainfall episodes one of the risks worth monitoring even if El Niño cannot be blamed directly for an individual storm.
The Peak Has Not Arrived Yet
Perhaps the most worrying element of the current El Niño is that the phenomenon is still developing.
The World Meteorological Organization expects it to strengthen further before peaking towards the end of 2026, with an almost certain probability that El Niño conditions will continue through February 2027.
That means the situation in Indonesia, Africa, Australia and the Americas could continue evolving over the coming months.
Not every forecast will become reality, and even a record-strength El Niño does not produce extreme weather everywhere.
But the combination of a very strong natural climate phenomenon and an already warmer planet gives governments good reason to prepare early.
El Niño is not acting in isolation. Record ocean temperatures are adding even more energy to the climate system; you can read more in our article on why record-hot oceans are alarming scientists around the world.
The story of the 2026 El Niño is therefore far from over. Millions of people are already exposed to its consequences, while its potentially strongest months are still ahead.
