Soaring fuel prices are bringing millions of families and workers across Europe to their knees. Following the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the price of diesel and gasoline has skyrocketed in almost every Eurozone country — and beyond.
Consequently, politicians across the spectrum — from right to left — have once again begun discussing the possibility of taxing the windfall profits made by major energy multinationals. While this proposal is sure to appeal to voters eager to see fuel prices drop at the pump, is it actually feasible to claw back a portion of these companies’ earnings? Let’s examine the reality of the situation and what the figures in these corporations’ financial statements actually reveal.
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Shell: profits nearly double
Shell is one of the clearest examples of how the current energy shock is affecting Europe’s largest oil and gas companies. In the first half of 2026, Shell reported dollars 164.4 billion in revenue, up from dollars 134.6 billion in the same period of 2025. That represents an increase of approximately 22%.
But the increase in profits was considerably larger. Adjusted earnings reached dollars 16.75 billion, compared with dollars 9.84 billion a year earlier: an increase of more than 70%. Net income attributable to Shell shareholders rose from dollars 8.38 billion to dollars 16.52 billion, almost doubling in one year.
The figures show an important distinction: the increase in fuel prices does not automatically translate into higher profits at petrol stations. The strongest impact is usually felt further up the supply chain, particularly through crude oil prices, refined-product prices and refining margins. Shell itself pointed to higher energy prices and strong trading conditions as important factors behind its second-quarter performance.
BP: refining margins become a major source of profit
BP provides an even clearer picture of the effect of refining conditions. The British energy giant recorded dollars 121.36 billion in sales and other operating revenues during the first half of 2026, compared with dollars 93.53 billion in the first half of 2025.
Underlying replacement-cost profit attributable to shareholders reached dollars 8.93 billion, compared with dollars 3.73 billion a year earlier. That is an increase of approximately 139%. Reported profit attributable to shareholders rose even more sharply, from dollars 2.32 billion to dollars 7.75 billion.
The refining figures are particularly significant. BP’s refining marker margin averaged dollars 23.3 per barrel during the first half of 2026, compared with dollars 10.0 per barrel in the first half of 2025. The increase was therefore more than 130%.
Within BP’s customers and products business, refining and trading generated adjusted EBITDA of approximately dollars 6.24 billion, compared with dollars 1.33 billion a year earlier. This is precisely the type of figure that makes refining margins central to the debate over potential European windfall taxes.
TotalEnergies: profits rise faster than sales
French group TotalEnergies also reported a substantial increase in profitability. Sales reached dollars 115.93 billion in the first half of 2026, compared with dollars 101.88 billion in the same period of 2025, an increase of around 14%.
Adjusted net income attributable to TotalEnergies shareholders rose from dollars 7.77 billion to dollars 11.42 billion, an increase of approximately 47%. Adjusted EBITDA increased by about 27%, reaching dollars 25.73 billion. The refining and chemicals business provides an even more striking comparison. Adjusted net operating income from this division reached dollars 3.40 billion, compared with just dollars 690 million a year earlier.
In other words, the result was almost five times higher. This does not mean that the entire increase can be classified as an “excess profit” under European tax rules. It does, however, show how strongly higher refining margins can affect the financial results of major energy companies.
Eni: Italy’s energy giant also benefits
Italy’s Eni recorded euro 42.73 billion in revenue during the first half of 2026, compared with euro 36.40 billion in the same period of 2025. Revenue therefore increased by approximately 17%. Adjusted net profit reached euro 3.6 billion, up about 43% year on year. Pro forma adjusted EBIT rose from euro 6.36 billion to approximately euro 8.9 billion, an increase of around 40%.
The refining business also returned to profitability. Eni reported that the improvement was linked in part to stronger refining margins, while its upstream business continued to benefit from higher commodity prices. The company’s own sensitivity analysis provides an interesting indication of the relationship between oil prices and profits.
According to Eni, every 1 euro increase in the Brent oil price generates approximately euro 130 million in additional adjusted net profit. A 1 dollar increase in its standard refining margin is estimated to add another euro 90 million to adjusted net profit. These figures help quantify the potential impact of the energy-price shock on a major European company.
Repsol: industrial profits increase more than sixfold
Spanish energy company Repsol recorded euro 33.95 billion in revenue during the first half of 2026, compared with euro 27.94 billion a year earlier. But again, the increase in profitability was much more pronounced. Adjusted net income reached euro 2.71 billion, compared with euro 1.16 billion in the first half of 2025. That represents an increase of approximately 135%.
The industrial business was the main driver. Adjusted net income from the industrial division increased from euro 235 million to euro 1.68 billion, an extraordinary increase of more than 600%. Repsol specifically linked the improvement mainly to higher refining margins. There is, however, another important element to consider.
Repsol recorded a positive inventory effect of euro 823 million, compared with a negative effect of euro 394 million in the previous year. That means that not all of the increase in reported profit should be interpreted as a structural improvement in operating profitability. The company also allocated approximately euro 2.4 billion to increasing inventories during the first half of the year and introduced measures to limit the impact of higher prices on consumers.
ORLEN: a different picture across European markets
Polish energy group ORLEN reported PLN 152.2 billion in revenue during the first half of 2026, compared with approximately PLN 134.4 billion a year earlier. LIFO EBITDA increased by around 37%, reaching approximately PLN 28 billion.
The second quarter was particularly strong, with downstream EBITDA at approximately PLN 5.9 billion. ORLEN attributed part of the improvement to favourable macroeconomic conditions resulting from the geopolitical situation. ORLEN’s results also highlight an important difference between European markets.
The company said it maintained retail margins in Poland at the minimum necessary level, while its international service-station network generated stronger profits. Foreign markets accounted for approximately 43% of service-station profits. This is another indication that the impact of the energy crisis is not uniform across Europe. Companies can experience very different levels of profitability depending on the country, taxation system, regulation and local fuel-market conditions.
OMV: refining margins more than double
Austrian energy group OMV also benefited from the sharp increase in refining margins. In the second quarter of 2026, sales revenue from continuing operations reached approximately euro 8.06 billion, up about 39% year on year. Clean CCS operating result increased by 65%, reaching euro 1.71 billion, while clean CCS net income attributable to shareholders rose by approximately 141%, to euro 929 million.
The fuels business recorded a Clean CCS operating result of euro 446 million, up around 85%. Once again, refining margins are the key indicator.
OMV’s European refining indicator margin averaged approximately dollars 20.33 per barrel, compared with dollars 8.10 a year earlier. That represents an increase of more than 150%. Interestingly, retail profitability did not increase at the same pace. OMV reported that fuel margins at the retail level were affected by regulatory pricing measures in several European countries.
Moeve: strong growth in Spain
Spanish energy company Moeve, formerly known as Cepsa, also recorded a significant improvement in profitability. During the first half of 2026, Moeve reported euro 1.18 billion in Clean CCS EBITDA, compared with euro 733 million a year earlier. EBITDA therefore increased by approximately 61%.
Clean CCS net income reached €458 million, up about 41% year on year. Moeve generated more than euro 25 billion in annual revenue in 2025, while its 2025 Clean CCS EBITDA stood at euro 1.69 billion.
The company has also been investing heavily in its energy-transition strategy. During the first half of 2026, it invested hundreds of millions of euros, with a substantial share directed towards projects linked to the transition to lower-carbon energy.
Are these really “excess profits”?
The figures from Europe’s major energy companies show a clear pattern. Revenues are rising, but in several cases profits are increasing much faster than revenues.
Shell’s adjusted earnings rose by more than 70%. BP’s underlying replacement-cost profit increased by almost 140%. TotalEnergies’ adjusted net income rose by nearly 50%. Eni’s adjusted net profit increased by about 43%. Repsol’s adjusted net income more than doubled, while its industrial profit increased more than sixfold.
But it would be incorrect to automatically define all these increases as windfall profits. The concept has a specific meaning in European taxation.
The EU’s 2022 temporary solidarity contribution, for example, targeted surplus profits exceeding 20% of the average taxable profits recorded in the previous four years, with a minimum tax rate of 33%. A simple comparison between 2026 and 2025 therefore does not provide a legally valid calculation of excess profits.
It does, however, provide a useful indication of how much profitability has increased during the current energy-price shock. And one factor stands out across several companies: refining margins.
The fuel price at the pump is not the same as corporate profit
This distinction is particularly important when discussing fuel prices. The price paid by consumers at a petrol station is made up of several components: the cost of crude oil, refining, distribution, retail margins and taxes.
The European Central Bank has highlighted how these components have behaved differently during the current energy shock. In the euro area, the crude-oil component of diesel has fluctuated significantly, while refining costs and margins have also increased sharply. At the same time, distribution margins have partly absorbed some of the increase further up the supply chain.
This means that a 10-cent increase in the price of a litre of petrol or diesel does not translate into 10 cents of additional profit for oil companies. The relevant question for a potential windfall tax is therefore not simply how much consumers are paying at the pump.
It is how much additional profit energy companies are generating compared with a normal market baseline, and how much of that increase is attributable to extraordinary refining margins, commodity prices or trading conditions. That is the real starting point for any serious debate over a new European windfall tax.
