Benjamin Netanyahu may be approaching the end of his long political dominance in Israel. President Isaac Herzog has chosen Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief of staff and the prime minister’s main political challenger, to try to form the country’s next government following the elections of October 27. The task, however, will be far from easy: neither of the two main political camps has enough seats to govern alone, while support from Arab parties could become the biggest obstacle in coalition negotiations.
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Israel’s election results and Netanyahu’s attacks on Arab parties
The election has produced a deeply divided Knesset. Netanyahu’s Likud party won 27 seats, making it the largest political force, while Yashar, the party led by Eisenkot, secured 21. The right-wing and religious bloc supporting the prime minister was left with 53 seats, compared with 48 for the opposition parties backing Eisenkot. Arab parties emerged as a decisive force, winning a total of 19 seats: 11 for the Joint List and eight for Ra’am.
After the vote, Netanyahu challenged the result, claiming that the election had been influenced by foreign interference and alleged irregularities involving Arab voters. However, Israel’s Central Elections Committee found no evidence of irregularities serious enough to undermine the outcome. The prime minister also posted a message on social media arguing that a government could not be formed with parties he describes as supporters of terrorism. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir went even further, calling for the arrest of Arab party leaders.
Why Herzog chose Eisenkot over Netanyahu
Herzog’s decision followed consultations with representatives of the political parties and was not simply a personal political choice in favour of the former general. Eisenkot received recommendations from 67 members of parliament, compared with 46 for Netanyahu. The seven lawmakers from United Torah Judaism, an ultra-Orthodox party previously close to the prime minister, did not endorse either candidate. Herzog therefore gave the first opportunity to the politician who appeared, at least on paper, to have the better chance of building a parliamentary majority.
The decision is a setback for Netanyahu, but it does not mean his time in office is already over: he will remain caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed. Eisenkot, a former chief of staff and member of Israel’s war cabinet during the conflict in Gaza, has 28 days to put together a coalition, with the possibility of requesting an additional 14 days from the president.
How can Eisenkot secure a parliamentary majority?
A government needs at least 61 votes in the 120-seat Knesset. Eisenkot could theoretically reach 67 by adding the 19 Arab lawmakers to the 48 seats held by his opposition bloc. But this option faces strong resistance within the opposition itself, particularly from Avigdor Liberman, who opposes a government that includes Arab parties. Another possibility would be to seek support from the two ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas. Together, they hold 13 seats, enough to bring Eisenkot’s potential coalition to exactly 61.
This route also presents serious difficulties: Eisenkot and some of his allies have pledged to extend compulsory military service to ultra-Orthodox men, while these parties want to preserve existing exemptions. A national unity government with Likud is another option, but Eisenkot has made clear that he would only consider such an arrangement if he were the one leading the government. If he fails to reach an agreement within the allotted time, Herzog could give Netanyahu a second chance to form a government, while a prolonged political deadlock could eventually lead to another election.
Gaza and the West Bank: why Palestinians do not expect a breakthrough
The possible change of government is also being watched with scepticism in the Palestinian territories. In a report for HuffPost Italia, journalist Nadia Boffa collected the views of people living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, many of whom have little confidence that a change of government will bring real improvements. Sami, a displaced man in Khan Younis, fears that even a new administration may fail to address reconstruction and living conditions. Karam, in Gaza City, admits that he hopes for a breakthrough but says it is difficult to keep hoping after repeated disappointments.
In the West Bank, journalist Shuruq As’ad argues that Eisenkot has not put forward a substantially different position from Netanyahu on the Palestinian issue: both oppose the creation of an independent Palestinian state and maintain hard-line positions on security and the Gaza Strip. A change in Israel’s leadership could therefore reshape domestic political balances and the country’s international image without necessarily bringing a breakthrough in relations with the Palestinians. For people living in Gaza and the West Bank, the priority remains a tangible improvement in everyday life, security and the prospects for reconstruction.
