The escalation of the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel is already having a direct impact on fuel prices across Europe. In just a few days, the cost of diesel and petrol has risen sharply, driven by tensions in the Gulf and fears of supply disruptions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil trade.
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What is happening to fuel prices in Europe
Across the European Union, diesel prices have recorded the most significant increases, reflecting the continent’s structural dependence on refined imports.
- In Italy, diesel has risen above 1.90 euro per litre, with peaks exceeding 2 euro in some regions
- In Spain, prices have approached between 1.80 and 1.85 euro per litre
- In Germany, diesel has climbed to around 1.85 and 1.90 euro per litre
- In France, levels are similar, with steady upward pressure
The increase is being driven by:
- higher crude oil prices
- logistical disruptions in the Middle East
- market speculation linked to geopolitical risks
Government responses across Europe
European governments are reacting differently, balancing public finances and consumer protection. In Italy, the government led by Giorgia Meloni is considering:
- temporary fuel tax reductions
- targeted support for logistics and transport sectors
- monitoring of price speculation through national authorities
Spain, under Pedro Sánchez, is focusing on:
- extending existing fuel subsidies introduced in previous crises
- strengthening public transport incentives
- price caps discussions at the EU level
Germany, led by Friedrick Merz, is taking a more cautious approach:
- no immediate tax cuts
- emphasis on energy diversification strategies
- potential support for industries most exposed to rising costs
Economic impact and most affected sectors
The surge in fuel prices is already affecting several key sectors:
- transport and logistics, with rising freight costs
- agriculture, heavily dependent on diesel
- manufacturing, due to increased energy input costs
- consumer goods, with inflationary pressures expected
The risk is a new inflationary wave, particularly in countries still recovering from previous energy crises.
What to expect in the coming weeks
According to analysts from major financial institutions and energy agencies, the situation remains highly volatile. Key scenarios include:
- further price increases if tensions escalate
- stabilization only if shipping routes remain open
- possible EU-wide intervention in case of prolonged crisis
Much will depend on developments in the Gulf and on whether global powers manage to contain the conflict.
