Italy’s nuclear debate has entered a new phase. On 4 June 2026, the Italian Chamber of Deputies approved the government’s enabling bill on “sustainable nuclear energy”. The measure passed now moves to the Senate for final approval.
The governing coalition supported the bill with the centrist party Azione. The Democratic Party (PD), the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Greens–Left Alliance voted against it.
The government targets 2040. Nuclear energy could cover about 3.5% of Italy’s electricity demand. This remains a small share. Still, it marks a symbolic return of nuclear power to the national energy mix.
The key question remains: is this target realistic within 15 years?
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How much electricity is 3.5% for Italy?
Italy consumes roughly 280–300 TWh of electricity each year. Using 300 TWh as a reference, 3.5% equals about 10–11 TWh annually.
To produce this output, Italy would need around 1.5–2 GW of nuclear capacity. This could mean a few Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), or one to two medium-sized conventional reactors.
The energy target itself is not large. The real challenge is different: can Italy build, license, and run nuclear plants in time?
The SMR strategy: political consensus, technical uncertainty
The government plan relies heavily on SMRs. These smaller nuclear units aim to offer more flexibility, lower costs, and faster construction through modular design.
However, political disagreement remains strong. Opposition parties say the roadmap is too optimistic. They argue it depends on technologies not yet fully mature in Western markets.
From their perspective, Italy risks building an energy strategy on evolving industrial solutions instead of proven technologies. The debate is not about technical feasibility. It is about whether deployment at scale can happen within the deadlines.
Government timeline: first plants by 2034–2035
Based on the legislative framework, Italy’s first SMR could operate around 2034–2035. Operators would deploy additional units between 2036 and 2040.
This schedule leaves little margin for delays. Any issue in licensing, siting, or construction could push the 2040 goal further away.
How much does nuclear power cost today?
Cost remains a major point of debate. International estimates place new nuclear construction between $5,000 and $9,000 per kilowatt installed. Delays often raise final costs significantly.
To reach the 3.5% target, Italy would need investments above €10 billion. In more complex scenarios, costs could reach €15–18 billion.
SMRs add more uncertainty. Modular design should reduce costs, but Western large-scale production remains limited in practice.
Nuclear power worldwide: which countries produce it?
Nuclear energy is not marginal globally. Around 30 countries produce electricity from nuclear plants, but production remains highly concentrated.
International energy data show clear leaders:
- The United States leads in total nuclear generation, supported by a large reactor fleet.
- China expands capacity quickly as part of its energy transition strategy.
- France relies heavily on nuclear power, which supplies about two-thirds of its electricity.
- Other major producers include Russia, South Korea, Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom.
In Europe, nuclear plays a major role in Slovakia, Hungary, Belgium, Finland and Sweden. In these countries, nuclear can cover 25% to over 60% of electricity demand.
Globally, nuclear provides around 9–10% of electricity. It contributes a much larger share of low-carbon electricity, which makes it important for decarbonisation goals.
Construction risks and international experience
Recent nuclear projects in Europe and the United States follow a clear pattern: delays and cost overruns occur even in advanced industrial systems.
Finland’s Olkiluoto 3 reactor needed more than 15 years to enter operation. France and the UK also experienced major delays despite strong industrial capacity.
SMRs aim to reduce these risks through standardisation and serial production. However, Western countries have not yet proven this model at industrial scale.
Fuel supply: where uranium would come from
Italy has no economically viable uranium reserves. It would depend entirely on imports for nuclear fuel.
Global uranium production is concentrated in a few countries, mainly Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, Namibia and Uzbekistan.
This shift would not remove Italy’s external dependence. It would change it from gas imports to uranium supply chains and enrichment services. Nuclear fuel, however, requires far smaller volumes than fossil fuels.
What changes by 2040?
The 3.5% nuclear share remains modest within Italy’s energy system. Even if achieved, renewables, gas infrastructure and electricity imports would still dominate.
The main challenge is industrial execution. Italy must rebuild a nuclear supply chain after decades without nuclear operations. If timelines, investment and technology progress align, the target could be reached. If not, the 2040 deadline may slip, following a pattern seen in many nuclear programmes across Europe and North America.
